Since the only newsworthy thing in the past week (according to the internet) is the great Egyptian protest, here’s what I think:
It’s fantastic to see people stand up to their government en masse, because they all find their government shittier than their own squabbles. There are a lot of countries who could stand to see more citizens like that (*coughamericacough*).
But for the Egyptians I don’t think much will come of it, and based on the admittedly little knowledge I have of modern Egypt and my generally good instincts about human nature:
I’d put money on the military siding with the government, and I absolutely expect the government/military to either start slaughtering protesters or simply wait until the protests run out of steam, either way backed by some of the other countries in that region. I don’t know how the basic needs of the place are held together, but everyone can’t protest and still buy groceries for an extended period of time. The military probably has the infrastructure to maintain itself, but the people… probably not so much.
There also seems to be a lack of structured leadership on the protest side- which is good because it keeps the whole thing from splintering itself to uselessness; but it’s bad because if the government does fall, there’ll be a sudden need for some.
Even in the best case scenario, there are still too many political/religious factions in that region, too many opportunists, and too much rhetoric there to think that there wouldn’t be a sudden power grab. And they’d be right back to enjoying some fascist, far-right, authoritarian rule.
I hope it doesn’t turn out that way. Those people deserve at least a couple years of quiet, reasonable existence.
But if it doesn’t I’d welcome them to immigrate here.